Saturday, May 8, 2021

Bitcoin for Beginners

My dad (a retiree) came over for dinner just now, and I was trying to explain Bitcoin and crypto to him. I think I managed to simplify it enough for him to understand, which is good. 

I'm taking the same approach for this series of articles I am writing, namely: to keep things short and simple, and largely focused on what laypeople are interested in. (Or what I am interested in, as my blog is called "Anything that Interests Me".) 

In this post, I am going to talk about Bitcoin, for absolute beginners. 

Cutting through the technicalities, Bitcoin is basically a digital currency. 

(As an aside, as far as I understand it, when we are referring to Bitcoin, the proper noun, there is a capital "B", but if we are talking about it as a unit of currency, it is with a small "b". 

So, when talking about Bitcoin in broad terms or as software or technology, it is with a capital 'B', but you buy 100 bitcoins with a small 'b'.) 

Essentially, Bitcoin is the most successful cryptocurrency (or crypto) out of hundreds if not thousands of attempts to create virtual money. 

Currently, Bitcoin's market cap is more than US$1 trillion. [1] 

Yes, you read that right. 

As at the time of writing, 1 bitcoin (or 1 BTC) was worth about S$77,900, or about US$58,800. [2] 

Recently, companies have started investing (but I think the correct word is speculating) in bitcoin. 

For instance, South Korean gaming giant Nexon reportedly allocated $100 million into bitcoin, while China's Meitu, the developer of China's wildly popular beauty-enhancing photo app, reportedly accumulated about $100 million worth of bitcoin and Ether. They follow hot on the heels of other companies, like Elon Musk's Tesla, which bought $1.5 billion of bitcoin. [3]  

For most laypeople like ourselves, bitcoin is purchased on an exchange, such as Coinbase (https://www.coinbase.com/) or Coinhako (https://www.coinhako.com/). 

An exchange is basically like a stock exchange, a place where buyers and sellers come to buy and sell cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin and ether. 

If you buy bitcoin, it will be stored in your wallet (somewhat similar to storing money in a wallet in real life). 

I know I promised to talk about Bitcoin for beginners, but really there's some scope for basic economics here. 

Since the meteoric rise of the price of Bitcoin, it would not make sense to invest all of your life's savings into this currency. However, if you would like to speculate, this would make a good punt. 

If you apply some basic financial principles, such as diversification, you would probably also look into other cryptocurrencies, such as ether (in second place) and other altcoins (alternative cryptocurrencies) to place some bets in, rather than going all in on one type of crypto or the other. 

There is also great volatility in the price of bitcoin, which has seen its fair share of rapid rises and equally rapid declines. 

Unlike Bitcoin, which can be thought of as a store of value, ether is the token used on the world's currently most used blockchain, Ethereum. Ether has powered the ongoing NFT (non-fungible tokens) craze. And it is also going through upgrades that could boost its price. 

I think that's really it.

But I would like to conclude this simple post on Bitcoin for absolute beginners with a well-intentioned piece of nagging. 

When it comes to mining, running nodes, and doing computer programming, in my experience knowing what they are about does not protect ordinary speculators (or anyone, for that matter!) from the simple fact that as a layperson you will be facing volatily, soaring highs and crashing lows, if you put money into bitcoin (and other crypto). You could stand to lose a lot, especially if you need to pull out your money urgently. 

And no less a luminary than Elon Musk himself has said that people should not invest all their life savings into crypto. That would be unwise. 

But if you fancy a punt, as I do, I have taken up some crypto (mainly ether), with some small amount of money that I can afford to lose. 

And let's see where this rollercoaster ride will go! Rocketing to the moon, perhaps? 


Anything that Interests Me! - More to come on crypto for absolute beginners and laypeople like myself

Sources cited:

[1] https://sg.news.yahoo.com/how-to-decide-whether-to-invest-in-bitcoin-or-ether-020413608.html

[2]  Based on a simple Google search. Seriously. 

[3] https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cryptocurrencies/Asian-companies-accelerate-shift-to-bitcoin-as-price-surges 

Friday, May 7, 2021

Non-Fungible Tokens (or NFTs)

In March 2021, a digital work of art by Mike Winkelmann, the artist known as Beeple, sold for US$69 million, in an auction by Christie’s. 

What is perhaps more surprising is that this record-smashing NFT sale came after months of increasingly valuable auctions. [1] 

In October 2020, Beeple sold his first series of NFTs, with a pair going for $66,666.66 each. 

In December 2020, he sold another series for $3.5 million. 

And in February 2021, one of the NFTs originally sold for $66,666.66 was resold for $6.6 million. 

Yes, you read those massive figures right. 

So, what are NTFs, and what is going on here? 

NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, are unique, one-of-a-kind files that live on a blockchain and are able to verify ownership. 

To go deeper into the concept, some things are fungible, i.e. exchangeable for another, or equivalent to another. Money is fungible. One US dollar is equivalent to another US dollar. 

But there are other things in life that are non-fungible, or one-of-a-kind, like a piece of art or a bespoke wedding ring, or a limited edition, autographed collectible card. One wouldn't consider these items equivalent with others, or easily exchangeable for another. 

A token is an asset on a blockchain. You own a token if it is associated with your wallet, or your identity online. 

When you have a digital asset on the blockchain (when you own it), everyone can see that you (or the account associated with you) own it. 

So, an NFT basically indicates which wallet or address it currently belongs to. 

Another way of thinking about the issue is that artwork can be tokenised to create a digital certificate of ownership that can be bought and sold. And as with crypto-currency, a record of who owns what is stored on a shared ledger known as the blockchain. [2] 

What are NFTs used for? 

These days NFTs are mostly used for digital artwork, but technically can be used for other digital and cultural assets, like tweets or even basketball trading cards (https://nbatopshot.com/). 

Taking artwork as the primary example, buyers of NFTs are essentially buying bragging rights of owning the original digital artwork (this assumes that authenticity in fact has a value). 

They are also buying a speculative asset that they may be able to resell later at a higher price. 

Another benefit is "patronage" or "support", where buying an NFT allows one to financially support an artist. [3] 

Yet another way of thinking about it is like you are buying an autographed print. [4] 

One important point for speculators and investors is that most NFTs are part of the Ethereum blockchain. 

As I mentioned earlier, this is one of the possible reasons why the price of Ether (the crypto) has been rising, as more and more people jump onto the NFT bandwagon.  

This implies that there are two main ways of speculating or investing into NFTs. One is to create (or mint) NFTs and the other is to invest into Ether, the cryptocurrency that these NFTs are largely traded in. 

OK, that's it for today. 

Thank you for reading! 

More to come on Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and more. 


Anything that Interests Me! - On NFTs, Ethereum, and Ether  

Sources cited:

[1] https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/11/22325054/beeple-christies-nft-sale-cost-everydays-69-million

[2] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56371912

[3] https://www.theverge.com/22310188/nft-explainer-what-is-blockchain-crypto-art-faq 

[4] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56371912

Ether and Ethereum (for Complete Laypeople)

One of the biggest trends these days is cryptocurrency (or crypto, for short). 

A friend of mine recently commented that an article in Today newspaper was really badly written, while many others have told me that they didn't understand crypto. (Well, neither do I, to be honest, as I am also a layperson. I am not a developer.) 

But I have been reading up on this topic recently and also speculate (not invest, as there is a distinction) in crypto, such as ether and bitcoin. 

So, I thought I would try to do up a series of simple articles for laypeople like myself so we can all get on the bandwagon. 

Maybe, we can even be cool and talk like the developers, computer engineers, and start up founders today. And maybe we can see what the hype is all about too.  

So, what is Ethereum?

Ethereum is the community-run technology powering the cryptocurrency, ether (ETH), and thousands of other decentralised applications. [1]

Today, Ethereum is the most actively used blockchain. 

A blockchain is a system of recording information in such a way that makes it difficult or impossible for people to change, hack, or cheat the system. 

Or, as the technical people explain it, a blockchain is "a digital ledger of transactions that is duplicated and distributed across the entire network of computer systems on the blockchain" [2]. 

And Ether is the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum blockchain. That is to say, it is like the coin that is tied to Ethereum, the blockchain. 

Currently, Ether is the second largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin by market value. [3] 

Depending on what you read (or who you read), both Bitcoin and Ether have hit all-time highs this year in 2021 because institutional investors and corporations have started buying cryptocurrencies to add to their balance sheets. 

As at the time of writing, 1 Ether equals S$4,657.62 or above US$3,500. 

Some are speculating (or is it divining?) that, despite its recent 1,500% rise in price in the past year, Ether will go up to US$5,000 to US$10,000 by end 2021 or 2022. [4]

Yes, you read that right. I have included the source in case you think I made up this "fake news". 

You might also have heard about NFTs, or Non Fungible Tokens (don't worry if you haven't - as I'm interested in it, I will cover it in a future post here on my blog, Anything that Interests Me). 

It is definitely worth reading about. 

It is said that user demand for Ether to buy digital assets such as NFTs also could be driving prices higher. 

In addition, unlike Bitcoin which is used only for transferring digital value, Ether is not just used as a digital currency, but also supports the Ethereum blockchain on which more types of transactions are possible. 

OK, that's it for today. 

I am keeping my articles short and sweet, 'cause ain't nobody got time to read long articles and posts these days. 

But I do sincerely hope that at least what I write as a layperson will be easily understood by people who are interested in this topic (as I am) but do not have a technical background. 

Thank you for reading! 

More to come on NFTs, exchanges, Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and more. 


Anything that Interests Me! - On Crypto, in particular Ether and Ethereum 

Sources cited: 

[1] https://ethereum.org/en/

[2] https://www.euromoney.com/learning/blockchain-explained/what-is-blockchain

[3] https://observer.com/2021/05/etherum-founder-buterin-billionaire-cryptocurrency-surge-bitcoin/

[4] https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/cryptocurrency/ethers-1500-jump-just-start-crypto-faithfuls

Thursday, April 23, 2020

How to Get a High Score at IELTS... as a Native English Speaker


For reasons that may only become obvious to me many years later, I am doing my IELTS Academic exam soon.

For those of us lucky enough not to take this exam and those of us who may not know what it is, IELTS is essentially an English-language examination. It apparently stands for the International English Language Testing System, and is a language proficiency test for non-native speakers of English. 

Let me emphasise that last part again: for "non-native speakers of English". 

When I first found out that I might have to take this exam, I was mildly amused and, not to put too fine a point on it, insulted. 

After many years of British colonialism in our country and English education in our schools, surely Singapore would be considered an English-speaking country by now. English is one of our official languages. And indeed it is, as we use English almost everywhere.

While it is sometimes true that some of our countrymen do not inspire confidence in our language abilities, it is also true that in the USA and UK, there are many folks there who do not speak English at all, or speak it at a very basic level (for example, a certain President of a certain country). They may not be able to pass the IELTS - a test for non-native speakers - but yet they are exempted for it, simply by being born in that country. 

However, I think there is a good learning point here for citizens of small countries.

Our preferences may not matter internationally. Rather, if larger English speaking countries want to throw away their history and heritage and label Singapore a non-English-speaking country, they can do it. And there is nothing we can do about it. Citizens of a small and open country like ours have to take the world for what it is, rather than take the world for what we hope it to be. 

Well, in any case, as a good Singaporean, I sucked it up and booked the test.

Being a very good Singaporean, I tried out a few trial practices and prepared for the test. 

And I came to the realisation that IELTS is very difficult. 

This is important, so I will state it again in no uncertain terms: 

This test is not a simple walk in the park. 

It is not easy at all, and mind you, I have had many years of higher education, and in fact I have taught English and History before. Several times during IELTS practices, I came close to the top score, but never once have I hit it. The top score maddeningly eluded me. 

Consider my anger, bewilderment, and confusion: prior to this terrifying experience, I had been speaking English my whole life and for a brief period when I was young, even thought that I was English. 

By the way, this "thinking we are English" is not just limited to me. In fact, when I was serving in the Army, a sergeant memorably castigated us for speaking Hokkien:

"Guys, please do not speak Hokkien. We are not a Hokkien Army. We are an English Army." 

Naturally, we all had a good laugh at him, because firstly, we were recruits at Basic Military Training Centre, so we weren't really army material at that point, and, secondly, we are not English - we are Singaporean. 

But that random episode doesn't really matter. 

The broader point here is that generally, while there are some among us, especially among the older generation, who do not speak English, the majority of Singaporeans speak English.

Some even speak a unique variant of English, called Singlish, but that's another debate for another time. 

But enough of the rant. 

Being a good Singaporean (did I mention, Singaporeans are generally also very good test-takers), I prepared for the test, and I can tell you that I have found some strategies which I would like to share with you. 

These tips and tricks can help you obtain a high score on the examination, should you unfortunately be (1) a native speaker but (2) have to take this test. 

It is a truly humbling experience, and to prevent yourself from being humbled, you have to practise using some key principles. 

There are actually five broad principles for success at IELTS. They are simple precepts, but they are not always easy to apply. 

I'll use generous examples from how confused and silly I was, so that you can learn from my mistakes. Well, as the famous Otto von Bismarck once wisely said, “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others.” 

You are now learning so that you can be wise. 

The first principle is that IELTS is NOT a test of your English-language ability. It is instead a test of your test-taking ability. 

This may sound controversial, but it is absolutely true.

Once you have accepted this truth, you will be able to do well, because you can prepare for it. If you go into it thinking that you are a native English speaker, you will be unpleasantly surprised by the test format, the style of questioning, the fact that the listening test only gives you the opportunity to hear something once, and so on.

Prepare for it.

Be humble. 

Let me just focus on the listening part. 

After spending much time at work, you learn when to listen, and when not to. Generally, when your boss is speaking, you pay a lot more attention, and when it's the colleague who always gets your team into trouble, you tend to discount what he or she says. It's natural. 

When you are at home, you generally don't pay full attention to the TV or social media, to be honest. When COVID-19 issues come up, you might jump up and pay attention to the figures for that brief moment, but generally you either scroll through your Facebook and IG feed - I do that - or you skip channels, in what the experts call, "channel surfing". 

However, when it comes to the IELTS listening test, you really have to pay attention, concentrate, and focus on answering the questions set. 

So, have no illusions about it. 

For native speakers, doing well on the listening test is not about our English language abilities, but rather our ability to focus, concentrate, and pay attention to what can be quite boring texts or conversations. 

The second principle is Answer The Question. 

It might come as a surprise to you, but this is harder than it seems.

When the question says "using not more than two words", you use one or two words.

When the question asks you about "What is the extent of A and B", you literally pen down your points on the extent of A and B; not A or B; and definitely not C. If you didn't get the meaning of that sentence, it's exactly what I mean. You have to respond to the question set, rather than the question you are anticipating or thinking about. 

This is a lot harder than it seems for the simple reason that, as native speakers, we have come to rely on cues, symbols, and other forms of communication.

It's as simple as that.

When we are asked a question in real life, we don't elaborate on the various pros and cons of a certain decision, giving examples along the way. 

For example, when you are asked in real life to "Discuss if Community is a good show", you would be like the character Abed (played by Danny Pudi) if you literally talked about all the pros and cons of Community, and the themes covered; the characters' personalities; and the many, many, many movie references. You would likely be regarded as autistic Abed. 

Rather, a native English speaker would say, for example, "My favourite character is Britta. She's amazing! She makes the show come alive." 

If you were a certain President you would even say (and mind you, he is a native English speaker), "Community, great show. Love it." 

So, the lesson here is basically that you have to answer the question posed; you have to answer all parts of it; and when you are doing the IELTS writing task and speaking task, you literally have to be like Abed - expand, elaborate, and explain every single thing you say, to respond to every single thing in the question. You must cover all the ground, and then some. 

The third principle is you have to be logical.

This is related to my first point, i.e. this is not really an English test.

It's, essentially, a test.

When I first approached the reading assignment, I thought it would be a simple comprehension test. Instead, you are asked to complete tables by filling them in (taking notes); providing headers (encapsulating key points); and choosing the right words accurately.

Now, these are not so much a test of English, but logic. These questions test your logic.

Can you follow an argument?
Can you paragraph sentences with a logical flow?
Does your writing have a nice narrative arc to it?

Everything my former boss used to say to me (to be more accurate, I mean, shout at me) is useful in this context: "Where is your logical flow? Why doesn't this sentence link smoothly to the next one? Where is my coffee?" 

The fourth principle is that you have to show off your vocabulary.

This is especially true for the reading, writing, and speaking sections of the test. 

Simplicity is not beauty here. Clear, accurate communication may actually be penalised (because the IELTS folk might think that you didn't demonstrate a high level of English). 

So, for example, you could write, "There are many planets in the universe. Some of them probably have intelligent life. I can believe that." This would not be acceptable. 

You should write (and I swear I am not making this up, because this is literally what the examiners are looking out for): "In the vastness of space, there are many planets of different shapes and sizes orbiting massive fireballs called stars or suns. Given that there is an astronomical number of these planets in space, it is no wonder that eminent scientists have complicated algorithms that predict that there may be some of them, beyond Earth, which are likely hosts to intelligent life, or aliens. In my humble opinion, it is likely that the statement is plausible, and, as a natural result, I have come to the conclusion that I believe in aliens, and that life finds a way to exist in the universe." An Abed-y answer like this would give you a fighting chance to do extremely well. 

The fifth, and last, principle is that you have to have perfect grammar.

This is the only part of the test that I can agree with, absolutely. Since it's an English test, it should make sure that you have perfect grammar, punctuation, and spelling. In fact, this is arguably the whole premise of an English proficiency test. 

However, there is one implication of this last principle. It means that you have to show them that you have good grammar. What this means in practice is that you will have to use a wide range of grammatical structures to demonstrate this ability to them. For example, ...

Active voice
Passive voice
Subject verb object
Conjunctions
Subjunctive clauses
and so on. 

Yes, you literally have to dig deep, and come up with sentence structures that you normally wouldn't use. The wider the range of grammatical structures used correctly, the higher the grade. Like so: 

If you only used the active voice, the tester wouldn't know how good you are. 
They wouldn't know how good you are if you were to only use the active voice. 
Use the passive voice sometimes, rather than the active voice. 
Were you to use the active voice exclusively, you would not get as good a grade, as compared to the situation where you use active and passive voices in concert and harmony. (Test yourself: which of the principles above was I using?) 

I hope you found the lessons I learnt, as a native English speaker taking the IELTS, useful. If you are not a native English speaker, you might still learn something, but you would have missed the (not-so-useful) references to a certain TV series on Netflix and a certain President of a certain country in the world. You didn't miss much. 

All the best as you take your IELTS, and good luck! 

Thank you for reading, and cheers.


Postscript: Results-wise, I eventually got 8.5 out of 9. I wish I could have gotten full marks, but for the essay section, I genuinely did not know much about rapid urbanisation and its impact on young people. If I had known more content about urbanisation and young people, I am sure I would have obtained a perfect score. Well, hindsight's perfect! :) 




Anything that interests me! 

Monday, November 4, 2019

Writing non-fiction books with value, are marketable, and can sell


In recent years, I have become very interested in writing local history. 

(Well, I have done quite some writing on my blog, which I have done on and off for more than 10 years, but writing local history requires a totally different set of skills, which I did not possess at the time.) 

Today, I have become deeply interested in finding out how to write non-fiction books with value, are marketable, and can sell well. I'm thinking that if I can document my experiences in writing local history (i.e. non-fiction niche books), it would help others who are also setting out on a similar journey. 

Many people I know have said that I am someone who is a natural teacher, who wants to share knowledge, and help others learn. It turns out that they may know me better than I know myself! 

This series of posts is for the dreamers, the idealists, and the romantics, the ones who want to set out words on a page to share facts and knowledge. 

These personal experiences and pains are from me to you; I hope they are instructive, if you are reading this, in search of writing a successful non-fiction book. 

My backstory begins with a lot of discouragement, which I suppose everyone faces when they set out to do something different. 

When I first started writing my very first book, many people, including my own father, scoffed at the idea. 

No one is interested in reading, they said. 

No one is interested in buying books, they said. 

And no one is interested in local history, they said. 

But as it turns out, while writing non-fiction books with value, are marketable, and can sell well is definitely a challenging and difficult journey, it is actually possible. I ended up writing not one, but two books, and two more are on the way now. I received some support from the government and private sector for my books, and I am deeply grateful for the support. 

It's been an incredible journey. 

You might have read many articles on how to write well, or even how to write a bestseller. Some are probably based on research, while others are based on real life, experiences, and first-hand knowledge. 

This is based on my own personal experiences.  

First, you must persevere. I did not give up when others told me that it was impossible to write a solid niche book which could sell. If I gave up the idea, the idea would have withered and died. I had to keep nurturing it, growing it, and developing it. 

In a certain sense, if you want to write, you must stay motivated and persevere. 

Keep at it. 

Never give up. 

Second, what is wrong with a niche? 

There is nothing wrong with a niche. Focus on a niche. 

In fact, marketer Seth Godin has written that if you could find 1,000 people who would be willing to be your fans and buy your products, you could make a decent living. 

We sometimes spend too much time writing for everyone and everybody, that we write for nobody. A book which is too general interests no one. 

If comprehensive, it would be boring and long; if concise, it would be too simple or introductory, and few would be interested. 

Write instead for those who would value and respect your book. In other words, pick your niche carefully. 

Third, write something newsworthy, meaningful, or significant. 

What is an angle that is worth exploring? 

What has not been said before? 

This is a lot harder than it seems. 

It might always seem that everything worth saying has been said before, but in both books I wrote (and even for my upcoming book), no one had ever written books on the exact same topics. 

In doing so, I helped to shed light on facts and figures, characters and personalities, and places and hiding holes which had remained hidden, or were lost in the mists of time. 

The first time one of my books was reported on in the press, I realised that the journalist was focusing on areas which were newsworthy, catchy, and novel. It made me realise that newsworthiness is quite central to writing non-fiction books. 

Fourth, you must consult others. 

The idea here is to seek views and feedback on your writing, rather than just living in your head. 

In a certain sense, if you are an aspiring writer or even an experienced writer, and you are here reading this blog "Anything that Interests Me!" to learn about writing, you are seeking to improve your craft. You are on the right track, remaining humble to learn. 

We are always works in progress, never finished, and never absolutely ready. 

Ask others to provide input, edits, and comments to your work. 

How's my writing? 

How's my narrative? 

How's my word choice? 

Be humble and willing to take in views. 

I know it's not easy. Each time someone has something negative to say about my books - my babies - I feel uncomfortable. It is challenging for me. 

But I swallow my pride because I want my books to be well-considered, factual, and accurate. And I know in my heart that I do not know everything. 

So it makes a lot of sense to consult others. 

Fifth, you must learn to write like a marketer. 

In this day and age, a book cannot or should not be too challenging for the average reader to understand; or be too academic; or be too challenging. 

Instead, it should use short, punchy, and evocative sentences. 

It should be written to inform (and hopefully amuse, inspire, educate, entertain, and delight). 

You can only do that if you know that you are writing like a marketer, addressing your target audience. 

This sounds like pure common sense but you would be amazed at how many people write and write and write without considering the end-users, the readers. 

Write like a marketer does - targeted at a specific target audience, reaching out to engage their hearts and minds.  

More posts to come on the lessons I have learnt from writing and marketing my books... stay tuned! 


Anything that interests me! on writing

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Schlager music - Helene Fischer and Beatrice Egli


I have been working very hard, and haven't had the time to catch up on blogging. At one stage a few years ago, I was an avid blogger and had written on a range of topics. Since my last post and now, I have changed jobs twice already - and have experienced much more. Now that I have had more experiences in my life, and even more interests - I shall write about them again, and inflict my views on the world. As I said, this blog is all about what interests me. 

I have recently fallen in love...

...with Schlager. 

Schlager (German for "hits") is a genre of music in Germany (and in other parts of Europe) that is catchy and easy to understand, with lyrics that help Auslaender like me understand German. It's often happy-go-lucky and sentimental lyrics, with emo topics like love and longing, relationships, and feelings, the kinds of stuff that I like to listen to when I am in the mood. (And as some of the Generation X people may controversially say, the type of music that may appeal to Millennials like myself.) 

Well, I am at the stage where I don't really care about what people think about me or my tastes. I recently had the privilege to learn about two top Schlager singers, among others - one apparently a foreign talent in Germany, and the other is Swiss. They are Helene Fischer and Beatrice Egli. While there are many Schlager singers in German pop music, these two are by far my favourites. 

Lifting some lines from Wikipedia - the world's resource to fast but not always reliable information - Helene Fischer (born 5 August 1984) is a singer, entertainer, television presenter, and actress. Since her debut in 2005 she has won numerous awards, including seventeen Echo awards, four "Die Krone der Volksmusik" awards and three Bambi awards. These have to count for something! 

I especially love her songs, Atemlos Durch Die Nacht ("Breathless Through the Night", but don't take my word for it as I'm not German, I'm Asian) and "Ich Will Immer Dieses Fieber Spueren" (literally it means "I want to always feel this fever", but I am pretty sure that she is talking about love and not fever, though what do I know - I am Asian). I am quite sure that she is a big star in Germany, not just because she appears frequently in the German media, but also because she was featured in one of the miniatures when I visited Hamburg's Miniatur Wunderland (which is all about amazing miniatures, which I will talk about in future when I can find the time). 

Not to be outdone, Beatrice Egli (born 21 June 1988 in Switzerland) is a Swiss female singer and the winner of season 10 of the German music competition "Deutschland Sucht den Superstar". Both of these ladies are foreign talents. According to trusty Wikipedia, Beatrice - bless her soul - has sold over a million records in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria, making her more than just a Swiss star. 

I especially love her songs "Mein Herz" and "Verrueckt Nach Dir" ("My Heart" and "Crazy About You" respectively, if my German language abilities have lasted the test of time). 

In fact, I am listening to these two singers right now as I write. They entertain me, even though they are quite culturally different from what I am experiencing here in Singapore. They're easy to understand, help me keep in touch with the German I have learnt over the years, and they are nice to listen to, and soft on the eyes and ears. 

So one of the things that interests me now is Schlager music. Try it for yourself if you are learning German - you might learn something interesting. 

Thanks for reading, and cheers. 


Anything that interests me! 

P.S. I am back, hopefully for the long haul, with more on what interests me. I hope these topics interest you too. Thanks for reading. 

Sunday, June 15, 2014

How to buy stocks in Singapore through POEMS and how to do simple DCA

This post is dedicated to CT, who asked me about commodities and how to buy stocks in her Philips account (POEMS), as well as about blue chip investment on a regular basis (some form of Dollar Cost Averaging). 

Hi C :)

Here's a simple post to help you get started with buying stocks through POEMS and how to conduct dollar cost averaging - although I'm not an expert in POEMS or Philips, I guess my experiences with Lim & Tan should be roughly similar, and hopefully that will provide a guide for you. I use the trading platform by Lim & Tan. 

Hopefully for some other people starting up their investment journey with POEMS, this might be useful for them as well. 

However, of course, as with any post here on this site: in no way does this constitute professional or commercial advice, and you should think through what materials you read here. In addition, while these materials relate to CT's experience and context (imperfectly, of course), these materials are general advice and ideas, and should not be taken to be professional advice. In fact, one simple and nice rule you should live by is that financial advice often has to be thought through carefully and applied to your own context. I'm not a financial adviser, and am merely sharing my opinions, thoughts, and experiences. 

OK, having said that, there are two parts to this article - one is on simple admin that will hopefully get you started, and one is on the theory and practice of Dollar Cost Averaging. You can do simple DCA yourself from the comfort of your home, and knowing how disciplined you are, it will be a simple and easy method of investment for you. 

How to get started:

First, read the materials on this page to get access to your account and to start trading on POEMS:

http://www.poems.com.sg/p2/trainings/

If that is not how you access your account, and you instead access it from a mobile phone (POEMS mobile), read the materials on this page instead:

http://www.poems.com.sg/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=190&Itemid=260#

At the bottom of the page is a nice "demo" which will show you how to get started. 

Second, if there's anything you're unsure of, there should be a broker (or agent?) attached to you, and whose number you should know. 

Call that person and ask for help with logging in and buying or selling. 

For instance, my broker is a gentleman by the name of W, so I just call him up every time I need help in terms of admin (and occasionally because I do silly things haha). Take note that generally these people do not give you financial advice, but they are there to help you execute trades. (Occasionally these people do give you advice but this is of course... let's not go there. Never ask a barber if you need a haircut, as my wise daddy always says.)

Dollar Cost Averaging for Blue Chips

This second part is for another question that you asked me :)

You can do DCA on your own for blue chips, and there's absolutely no need to invest with a bank or any organisation. 

In fact, you can do DCA for penny stocks too, which I personally feel is better because blue chips are really expensive. 

You can do it all on your own, which would be simpler for you. 

First, what is DCA? 

I ripped this definition off the internet (from Investopedia - yes, one must always cite one's sources and be intellectually honest):

"The technique of buying a fixed dollar amount of a particular investment on a regular schedule, regardless of the share price. More shares are purchased when prices are low, and fewer shares are bought when prices are high.

...  Dollar-cost averaging lessens the risk of investing a large amount in a single investment at the wrong time."

There are many pros and cons of this, which can take me a long dinner or supper even to explain, but let's just say for the purposes of this article that we are focused on the how and not the why. 

How do we apply DCA in real life, and not let the bank handle this for us?

Step 1: Identify some blue chip stocks of your own, or identify the blue chips that the bank intends to buy. 

CT, you were interested in commodities, so you could perhaps choose one commodity blue chip. 

Maybe choose also a bank or a construction firm also, or something like that. Personally, I hardly ever invest in blue chips, so I would invest in penny stocks instead, but it's up to you. Just identify a few companies you would want to invest in for the long haul. 

In my view, the central premise or core idea for DCA is that, in the long run, stock prices generally rise despite the fluctuations up and down, and this method helps you invest continuously without worrying about market timing. 

Also, there's another simple rule here you may want to follow - try to get stocks that are negatively correlated, or at the very least, stocks that are not correlated. This means that as the price of one stock falls, the price of the other stock does not fall. Oil companies and airlines are the best example. If the stock price of an oil company starts to fall because of, say, declining oil prices and revenues, then the stock price of airlines should rise as their costs of production will start to fall (presumably due to cheaper oil prices), ceteris paribus. 

Why would you want to do that? If you buy a stock that is positively correlated with another one, if one falls in value, the other will fall also and you'll be caught off-guard. For instance, if you buy two palm oil companies, and there's bad news for palm oil, instead of facing one stock going down in price, you will have two stocks going down in price also. 

Step 2: Decide on a fixed amount of money you're willing to invest, and the regular interval at which this will happen. 

For instance, $1,000 per month is the fixed amount and I will invest at an interval of every three months. 

(Personally, it's my view that the larger the investment sum, the better for you, because the transaction costs you pay will be much lower as a proportion, mathematically speaking.)

This makes a $3,000 investment once every three months, at a specific day. 

Step 3: (And this will work for you, CT, as you are dedicated and very disciplined) Invest the money on the specified interval. 

Log into POEMS and buy say Stock A and B (your identified basket of stocks). 

$1,500 goes into A, and $1,500 goes into B. Round up the lot number, so for instance if it's 1,990 shares, just buy 2 lots (2,000 shares). This is a matter of convenience for you, and also so that you don't have to worry about odd lots (lots that do not end in ",000") in future. 

Hope that answers your question, and hopefully you think through carefully about what you are doing, and then commit to your own DCA. 

People say that DCA works over the long term and is best for novice or inexperienced investors, so I guess it would be a good start for you. 

[ Oh, by the way, according to the way that we have set up your POEMS account, the dividends from the stocks should be regularly credited to your bank account once, or twice, or even more than that, every year. Dividend from stocks are tax free from your point of view, so I am sure you'll be happy to know that :) ]

I certainly don't do DCA - I do lump sum investing where I go long on stocks that I really have researched a lot on, and I do some form of asset allocation. 

Nonetheless, hope this article gives you insight into what you want to do and hopefully it helps you!

Thanks for reading and cheers :)

Anything that interests me!

Friday, June 13, 2014

Some Simple Steps to Financial Freedom?

This post is dedicated to WL & YC.

This evening I was treated to a wonderful meal by some former economics students who learnt about economics and finance from me. Our evening's discussion was interesting and wide-ranging, and it was fun to catch up with them over dinner. 

I was asked a few interesting questions about steps to financial freedom or financial independence, and it is one of the topics that interests me, so here's a post on easy and simple steps to financial freedom. Some of the ideas I thought of on my own, some are from research done on the internet, and some are just pure common sense, which I thought I'd like to share. 

None of these ideas in the following discussion, of course, constitute professional or commercial financial advice or investment tips, and all ideas written here should be considered in terms of principles, concepts, and ideas, rather than specific financial advice. I'm not a financial adviser, but in any case I'm sure I will write a more advanced version for my other blogs, since this topic interests me and probably interests many people in general. Take note, further, that while the steps may be simple and easy, implementing them often takes great discipline and effort, and people aren't often consistent or disciplined. Nonetheless, this might be of great use to people who can think through issues or who would like to see the ideas that I have collated and would love to share - would definitely be worth a read! :) 

Here are some simple steps to financial freedom that I have read about (or are pure common sense), which might be helpful to income earners or people planning ahead for retirement. 

Set your financial goals and objectives. First, the most important thing is about goal setting and objectives. You must first think about your life and what you really want. What does financial freedom or financial independence really mean? If you want a luxurious life full of luxuries, then clearly the passive income you might need from investments would be much larger and harder to achieve compared to someone who wants a simple life with basic necessities and occasional luxuries. Are you thinking about having the freedom to work as you please, and for who you like? Or are you thinking about having enough for subsistence? Clearly there are many possibilities, but if you fail to plan, you plan to fail. Some people suggest using SMART goals - specific, measurable, achievable, realistic, and time bound (meaning that there is a time limit to what you are doing); this might be worth a big shot. 

Why? It should be clear that different people have different goals and objectives, but the idea is to make sure you know what you are doing and why you are doing it. Why is more important than what, since after all it means that you will be more motivated, inspired, and able to achieve what you want, compared to someone who doesn't know why he is doing something. Be sure to know why. Personally, I want to have the freedom and time in future to pursue the many hobbies and interests that I have, and so having the financial means to do so without worrying about my paycheck is a very strong incentive for me. 

Spend less than you earn. Next, the central idea that many people write about - and I agree - is that you have to spend less than you earn. Simple idea. Spend less than you earn. Live beneath your means. 

Earn additional income. In fact, if need be, take up extra jobs or work harder to gain additional income. Earn additional income. 

Grow your money. With the money that you save from spending less than you earn, invest the money. This will take a whole post to write about, and certainly is an important topic, but the idea is simple here - don't let the money accumulate under your bed; invest your money and grow your wealth. 

Get passive income. On this note, many people suggest gaining passive income through investment in stocks for dividends, and bonds for interest, and, for the more conservative amongst us, placing money into fixed deposits might be a good idea. In simple terms, remember to invest your money rather than just putting it into a savings account. Personally, I invest heavily a lot in the stock market and aim for both capital gains and dividend yield. 

Reduce your existing debt. The first thing many people say is: try not to get into huge debts, and if you have an existing debt, try to reduce it as soon as possible. Make sure you pay off your debts. Now, I have a different opinion on what many people say. Many people say, don't borrow; try not to get into debts at all; and debts are bad. I would say instead that it really depends on what the debt is about. If you borrow money to spend on consumption, such as borrowing for a new TV set or a sofa set, then that might not be a good idea. Try to pay those in full, because interest has this nasty habit of expanding and expanding. You always end up paying much more than you expect (due to "effective interest rates"). If however you borrow money to spend on assets, such as a house (which is actually an asset as it can be rented out, or sold for capital gains) or to spend on machinery for your business if you are an entrepreneur, it is rather different from borrowing for consumption. I would say that in my opinion try to reduce "bad debt" and try to pay off your "good debts". However, I think it was Dale Carnegie who once said, and I paraphrase, the best way to get the best of an argument is to avoid it. If you can pay for things in full, it would always be better - but in my personal view if you have to borrow, try to borrow for the right reasons. 

Track your income and expenditure. I keep records of how much I spend and how much I earn, and it was with great comfort and some degree of happiness that I discovered that this is a good idea on the road to financial freedom and independence. Make sure you know how much you spend, and how much you earn, and this will make sure you have the knowledge to cut in the right places. 

Keep within your budget - have discipline! Enough said :)

Learn proper dynamic asset allocation. One of the financial ideas that might be useful here is asset allocation, and in particular dynamic asset allocation. Put your resources across various classes of assets, like stocks, cash, bond, REITs, and insurance, as this diversification helps you ensure that you can build up your wealth while reducing your risks drastically.

Build up an emergency fund. Once you do the above, build up an emergency fund for a rainy day just in case you need the funds quickly. Do this last because paying off existing debts and investing are the main and early priorities. Many people say that an emergency fund should be 3 to 6 months of your income, and that might be a good idea. 

Hope these ideas help you think through your own steps to financial freedom, and provide food for thought in your own journey. Do think through the ideas and concepts, and see which are applicable to your own context and situation. Thanks for reading my ideas on steps to financial freedom. Cheers!

Anything that interests me!

Sunday, June 8, 2014

How to ace your University Scholars Programme Interview

I occasionally get questions from JC students about how to ace the University Scholars Programme interview, and indeed yesterday I specifically had an hour-long conversation with a student about how to get into the USP at NUS. This post is dedicated to that student, WL, but also to all the students who want to know how to ace their interview to enter USP. 

How does one ace the USP interview?

First, let me start by sharing an instructive story. 

Some time ago I was interviewing students, along with a colleague. They came into the room, and as is the custom, we the interviewers are supposed to ask them questions and prod around for a bit, and the candidates are supposed to answer, in excellent English, as best as they can. 

A 20-year old Chinese student came into the room, dressed appropriately for the part of candidate in a serious interview, and then sat down. The first question we asked was: what subject would you like to read in university, and why? 

The candidate, amazingly, had no good answer to this one... 

Eventually it transpired that it was her mother who wanted her to go for this course. 

In other words, she wanted to enter university because her mother said so. 

To the following questions about where she saw herself in the next few years, and what did she want to do with her life, and what interested her, she had vague and unclear answers also. 

She replied, in respective order: (1) she wanted a good job (well, I'm sure most would agree with that, and only a rare person would want a bad job); (2) she wanted a good job (again, I'm sure of that); and (3) she had no interests other than joining university. 

In the end, both the other interviewer and I had to conduct a 10-minute long career counselling session out of the kindness and goodness of our hearts. 

The candidate, needless to say, did not get in. 

What do we learn from this simple and sadly true story?

I'll give you a moment to think about it before I give you a simple checklist. 

Think about it, really. 

Before you go for any interview, in particular university scholarship interviews - 

(1) You really need to think about what you're doing with your life and why. What's your life story? Please don't something because others have told you to do so - you will need some intrinsic motivation and some self-knowledge. 

(2) You must really think about whether you're a good fit at the course you're applying for, as well as the programme you are applying for. Are you a good fit? That means that you are someone who should be in that course and you fit right in. Can you cope, and will your survive the gauntlet?

(3) You really need to think and reflect about your life. Oh, I've said something like that already? :)

Now, for preparing for the interview, these would be major areas that you need to seriously consider. 

I'll ask you some further thinking questions and then you have to do your own thinking. 

Come up with your own responses and suggestions; tinker around with your answers for a bit. 

Note that these questions to follow are areas to consider, and these are not the exact questions you will get at the USP interview, or for that matter in any other real-life interview. These are thinking questions that you need to think through for yourself and prepare yourself for:

(1) What is it about the programme that really draws you? Do you really know the programme and what you are getting yourself into? In fact, in your opinion, what are the strengths and weaknesses of the programme?

(2) What are your strengths and your weaknesses, and do you have some major examples of each? Think about your various qualities and characteristics. 

(3) What are your academic interests? What really, really inspires and motivates you?

(4) What are your non-academic interests? What really, really inspires and motivates you? What are your hobbies and how are these interesting, helpful, useful, or exciting?

(5) What specifically do you hope to achieve in your years in university? Why?

(6) What do you want to achieve after university, and why? What career do you want, and how will the programme help you? These objectives will play a major role in understanding what you are all about. 

(7) Are there any questions that you want to ask the interviewer? What are they and why do you want to ask those questions?

If you can think through these points, you will find that you can ace the programme with a lot of ease. 

You would really have a good hard look at the USP website (here it is: http://www.usp.nus.edu.sg/), think a lot about yourself (academically and CCA-wise) and the course, read up a lot on your academic interests, read up a lot in general, and do a lot of "futures thinking". You might even do some chats with seniors, ask your parents or trusted senior advisers to give you a good assessment of yourself, and do some serious soul searching. You might even meditate and ponder on the questions above, and even prepare some specific questions and answers. 

These thoughts and actions, all considered, will put you in good stead to ace the interview. 

Why do I want to help good, able, motivated students get into USP? 

[Presumably if you have found your way to my blog post here, you're most likely a tech-savvy, motivated, intelligent, and inquisitive student, just the sort of person we would want in the programme.]

Well, I enjoyed my time at the USP very much; after all, I spent a good four years there, and made a lot of friends (and frenemies) there as well.

In fact, I enjoyed my experience there so much that I often attend alumni activities and go back to USP many times to make various small (and for the moment insignificant) contributions. Nonetheless, I do my part, and I do my best.

Hope this simple article helps you clarify your thinking. 

Good luck and all the best! Let me know how it goes :)

Anything that interests me! and in this case, something that interests you too :) Thank you for reading and cheers!

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Basic List of Books to Prepare Freshies for NUS Economics

Basic List of Books to Prepare Freshies for NUS Economics 

OK, this is going to be a very strange post, because basically it's a response to a request by someone who is going to enter NUS FASS this year. 

It's a very basic list of books to prepare freshies for NUS Economics. 

I hope this helps you, but the reality is that nothing actually really prepares you for the real mental toughness and intellectual rigour of studying at NUS, and especially studying Economics - which in the immortal words of some people I respect - is a subject that has "physics-envy" (and thus has a lot of mathematics in it), and is a subject that is a load of abstraction in university.

So having given a nice disclaimer which basically states that nothing actually really prepares you, here is a list that could potentially help you prepare for NUS Economics (or any bachelor of social science Economics in almost any university). 

Good luck! Do please note that this is the list that I myself have studied, read, and ... well regurgitated at some point or other. Good luck once again!

Stock & Watson, Introduction to Econometrics. 
(Honest to goodness, if this does not scare you off studying Economics, then clearly you are made of stern stuff.)

Robert Barro, Macroeconomics 
Abel & Bernanke & Croushore, Macroeconomics

Krugman & Obstfeld, International Economics: Theory and Policy

Pindyck & Rubinfeld, Microeconomics

Roger Backhouse, The Penguin History of Economics

Prentice-Hall, Mathematical Economics (or basically any mathematical economics textbook)

Roger Backhouse is very famous in the field of Economic History, which is my favourite subject. Full of interesting twists and turns, this is one of the best introductory books to understanding Economics as a discipline. Suffice to say that this book is purely for enjoyment and intellectual pleasure. This is because post-modern Economics as we know it is basically a mathematics course. There's a joke in this regard... then again, discretion is the better part of valour!

Also, you should consider reading - other than my blog - Mankiw's blog, and Dr Wong WK's blog. Yes, I'm biased: http://courses.nus.edu.sg/course/ecswong/wongweikang.htm 

Good luck, and all the best for your academic journey!

Hope this helps :)

Anything that interests me!

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Tempora mutantur, nos et mutamur in illis...

As promised, here I am blogging once again. I'll take this as an opportunity to share some of the strange things floating around in my head, as well as some rare nuggets of information or knowledge that might be useful to you some day (then again, no, not really). Once in a while I will write about NUS, USP, and university stuff again because that's what most of my readers like, since I started this blog when I was at university. That seems like a really long time ago!

Tempora mutantur, nos et mutamur in illis

is in the next post, not this one! :)

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Anything that interests me! The Dilbert and Peter Principles

Anything that interests me! The Dilbert and Peter Principles

I have been looking through my old blog posts and have discovered that I have written on quite a variety of subjects, far beyond my perimeters of "psychology, economics, history, mentalism, and yada yada". (I've also noted all sorts of tones and different nuances ranging from elation to anger, academic to non-academic, conversational tones, even.)

Well, in keeping with that I am going to mention two principles in management, which are NOT official or academic principles. They are just satirical observations and aren't based on any OLS estimation results or underlying deductive economic theories or any such stuff. They are, in other words, just for fun - although they appear very true!

The Dilbert Principle is basically Scott Adams' observation that organisations tend to promote incompetent people to higher management. (Anyone working under a bad boss or a "pointy headed boss" should know this one.)

The Peter Principle - formulated by Peter and Hull (1969) - is the observation that people who are very good at their jobs tend to be promoted to their level of incompetence because they are promoted to do things that they aren't very good at. The Generalised Peter Principle is that anything that works will be used in higher and more complicated applications until it just can't work any more.

Well, first of all, let's have a good laugh - YES, this is so true! (And you know it.)

I first came across these when I was working in the military (which all boys have to do in my country). My friend who happened to be a sergeant passed me a comic book by Adams and I was instantly hooked.

In any organisation - and the military is one example among many - there are several bosses who seem to know very little about what the organisation is about, and seem to be bumbling, fumbling, stumbling, mumbling morons. The question is - how did they get to be there?

I mean, the wonderful boss, the brave and strategic military commander, the elite manager, and the very smooth talking marketing genius can all get to be at the top because, wow, look at their talents - they are really capable. But there are some bosses who seem to come right from the depths of hell, and have fluff in place of brains. Explain that!

Mind you, to stress the point, we are not explaining those people who are at the top and are great leaders (Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, my old colonel and many others come to mind). They either were incredibly talented and hardworking and smart from the very beginning and realised their talents, or they improved gradually, worked hard and improved along the way by learning rapidly or learning by doing, from rung to rung. No surprises there. We are instead trying to explain some inexplicable "anomaly".

Now, the Dilbert idea is that people are promoted because they are incompetent, so that they can move out of the way of the people doing the real work. That is one approach.

The Peter Principle is less cynical. It's that those guys weren't so bad at their jobs in the beginning! It's that as they went higher and higher in the job, their real skills and talents were left in the previous ladder.

As a German comedy (written about on Wikipedia, I kid you not!) said: one might make a very good sergeant, but not a good captain, and certainly a worse general.

Well, possibly.

But this is where I bring in my own views on this incredibly interesting and very odd subject. Perhaps it's got nothing to do with either the Dilbert or Peter Principle. Maybe it's got to do with schadenfreude or tall poppy syndrome? Maybe it's got to do with improper selection methods for management? But maybe... it's got to do with the so called Dunning Kruger Effect.

The thing why I guess DF and I are cleverer than average is partly due to this Dunning Kruger Effect. We know where we are deficient. Whenever I hear someone being described as a real polymath, I shudder, shake and quake, because of my economics training shouting out (loudly) "Opportunity Cost! Opportunity Cost!" I mean, I know we can all learn diverse subjects - I have wide interests too. But I acknowledge that for some of them I can never scale the full heights, especially since, even within fields I am proficient in, I can see that the mountains are nearly insurmountable.

What's this lack of cognitive dissonance got to do with incompetent people getting promoted?

Maybe the simple reason is that the people who are incompetent get promoted by people who simply are BAD at picking talent. Because they can't tell who is good, and who is bad, these gatekeepers or the next higher rank personnel pick those who appear confident, clever, smart, outspoken, and so on. No surprises there, I'd say - fairly uncontroversial. However, because these "gatekeepers" suffer from the Dunning Krueger Effect, they pick those people who suffer from the same overconfidence too!

Why don't they pick winners, in that case? Because the Dunning Krueger Effects predicts that people who are really competent tend to underestimate their true abilities whilst incompetent people tend to overlook genuine true ability. Thus, incompetent manager might pass over truly competent but humble worker in favour of falsely overconfident incompetent worker!

That's my tentative take on it. Plausible?


Nah, I give up. I've absolutely no idea why there are "pointy haired bosses".

Shouldn't evolutionary fitness or evolution or profit maximisation weed these guys out?

Your guess in this case is really as good as mine.

Anything that interests me!

Saturday, January 22, 2011

A Quick Note on How To Read Anything that Interests Me!

A Quick Note on How To Read Anything that Interests Me!

I have had some comments sent to me via facebook, some via email, and some have tagged on my board, and for the next few months I encourage people to send me materials or stuff that I should read, and certainly people should feel free to tell me comments or their analyses, and so on.

However, I realise that there are a few problems that I have to highlight. This doesn't apply to all the emails I get; only some. (However, it's good general advice.)

Let's take an example. Recently, I wrote a normative analysis of certain government policies. Now, I got two main comments for that - the first comment was a rather simple comment that I should read more political economy but seemed to mistake my simple analysis for quantitative economics, which it certainly wasn't; the second comment was an economics reply, which dealt with intertemporal allocative problems and commitment issues and evolutionary theories and a general analysis of Singapore's current issues ranging from - I kid you not - low birth rates to evolutionary fitness of Singaporeans.

Now, the thing is that I've read my J S Mill, and yes, people have freedom of speech and thought. However, having said that, here are some rules that should guide you in reading all articles, but including this one as well:

1. What is the context?
The two replies to my analysis have ignored the context - it's a Singaporean context; it's written in response to the fact that there are mostly one sided comments on many yahoo FTP articles; it's written in response to certain events, etc. Context is important.

2. What is written? What does the author say?
Now, the thing is that this is amazing. Despite my repeated exhortations, people can still read wrongly! E.g. "UBS' retirement age is 62!" I never said it wasn't. "We can still be reemployed after retirement, OK!" I never said you can't. "Why should economists decide our future?" I never said they did or should. And so on, and so forth. Please, please, read what is written, not what you think is written.

I shall say this again as it's so important: Read what is written, not what you think is written.

3. Try to think about the new information or ideas, rather than rejecting them out of hand.
This site is meant to increase your views, not to narrow them. This site is meant to share my ideas on what interests me, not what necessarily interests you. So if you can't take new ideas, you shouldn't be here. If you don't like reading, go somewhere else.

On the other hand, if you're here - then think about what I've written and see if it applies to you; if it's logical; if it makes sense; if it doesn't, then does the issue lie with you or with me? [And bear in mind I don't usually write on issues I don't know.]

If I am wrong on the other hand, then make a mental note, or better yet, send me a correction! If it's an opinion you don't agree with, rather than something "positive" (factual), then think about what you don't like, why, and why your underlying assumptions are better than my underlying assumptions. Don't bother sending me an unsubstantiated opinion; opinions should have some basis.

4. Question, challenge and think through what you read.
I have said that before, so I shan't bother explaining. Question! Question! Question! I would like to thank my old teacher Ms M who taught me that when I was a young H S way back in '02/'03.

In any case, for some - odd - people who don't seem to like my writing, they shall be pleased to know that I will be stopping further posts on this blog in July 2011, in a few months' time. I shall be concentrating on other sites, and also spending more time on my postgraduate diploma. There are many things for me to do, rather than just contributing ideas to help university juniors or people asking for advice. Tschuess!

I've had a great run and made a lot of online friends (online enemies tend to make nasty comments then disappear permanently; online friends (who sometimes also happen to be my friends in real life) occasionally send me more tags or emails or write nice things about me, such as Accelerator and Defensedefumer).

As for those who like my writing, well, you've had my company on many occasions and some of you - well, a whole bunch of you - have been receiving nice emails and comments from me. It was a pleasure knowing you. Thank you very much to all my friends, nice readers and good passersby who gave me nice comments and some really funny, in terms of happy, comments too. So don't be surprised when in a few months' time, I send a goodbye notice! :) Thank you to all my loyal readers!

To end on a sad note: It has been great blogging; but as we say, all good things come to an end.

Anything that Interests Me!

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Anything that interests me: Short Reflections on Acts of Insight

I'm supposed to be gearing up to present my thoughts on the New Institutional Economics and reputation mechanisms (in historical institutional analysis) tomorrow to my thesis supervisor, but here I am with a quick reflection on Usher's acts of insight.

As such, I am going to coast along with my smarts ... nah, this part won't fool my friends. I read the relevant materials already and have presented that stuff twice. Please, Lord, let the results turn out in my favour.

By the way, as an additional apropos comment, when I was surverying the literature (that's the academic term for "surfing the net"), I came across blogs devoted to analysis of the cumulative model and other economics fields as well! Lovely! That is a "true contribution to knowledge" :)

In any case, let me get back to Usher's model.

The cumulative synthesis approach to invention states that inventions come about like this:

1. There is a perception of a problem.
2. The stage is set, where data related to the problem is assembled.
3. An act of insight occurs that goes beyond the act of skills committed by professionals (like myself, although as to what kind of professional I am, being trained in economics, history and economic history, is a completely different matter).
4. There is critical revision of the invention, and the process continues.

Now, it doesn't take a genius (like me) to figure out that the really hard bit is the act of insight. The way the problem is perceived or seen is also quite problematic, but it isn't that hard relative to the insight bit. (As the saying goes, fools may often ask more than the wisest can answer. I see quite a lot of that in some of my students, though! Asking questions is generally easier than finding the solutions, although asking the right questions can be hard sometimes.) Collecting the data and setting the stage seems to require a fair bit of work, but it is not that difficult given modern research settings. Critical revision? Long, gruelling work, true enough, but it can be done.

And so it came to pass that I was thinking quite hard about this act of insight. What is it?

Individual insights of a peculiar nature, perhaps? Or maybe merely just a small revision to the received wisdom. I couldn't get a handle around it.

I wonder what it is. What causes it? What helps it along?

As I attended the lecture on science and technology last week, Patrick O'Brien was really funny (making all sorts of derogatory remarks about himself, even). He claimed that some people were destined for heaven, unlike him! He also made a lot of jokes about the Irish, as he's Irish. OK, we had a lot of good laughs and it was after all an introduction to this difficult field with four LSE experts.

But the thing is that he didn't mention what the acts of insight were about, and rarely touched on them. Now that is puzzling because until we know what constitutes an insight, where it comes from, I think the cumulative synthesis model is as much a mysterious model as any other attempts to understanding innovation in science and technology.

I shall sleep on it.

Anything that interests me!

PS My friend Roastbird had an interesting article on his facebook site as well, called "The Truth Wears Off", which is basically "The Decline Effect and Scientific Method". It was about how it becomes hard over time to replicate certain findings and the more you do experiments, the less marked the effects become. Cool stuff; I'd recommend looking up the newyorker to search for Jonah Lehrer's "The Truth Wears Off".

PPS Even a moment's reflection should remind all of us engaged in research work that Lehrer's article is very, very important as a reminder for us. That's because if we are to earn the MSc (Masters of SCIENCE), be it social science or physical science or historical/evolutionary science, those publication implications do indeed impinge on us.